2035 & beyond: World of energy: disruption
Probable Scenario: 1
The world has developed very dynamically, especially in China and India. Global energy needs have increased by
80 percent. The scarcity of resources (with regard to energy resources, water, land and food) has increased dramatically. “Scarcity management” is a buzzword in Europe that describes how scarcity is used as an innovation driver.
Society in Europe is characterised by a highly participative attitude on the part of people in 2035. The former “angry citizen” has become an “active citizen” who is constructively involved in shaping the energy future. Consequently, the number of citizen action groups, interest groups and lobbyists has grown exponentially, and the complexity of the energy sector has increased significantly.
Technology plays a dominant role. The innovation cycles in the energy sector have decreased dramatically in the past 15 years as a result of growing crowd innovation and co-creation, in which the customer is included in the innovation process. Crowdfunding has become common practice for financing technologies. Young entrepreneurs, start-ups and tinkerers keep the European energy sector hopping to such an extent that the traditional balance of the industry is disrupted. In parts of Europe, oil and gas reserves are inexpensively exploited in unconventional methods with new fracking technologies.
Value creation in the European industry of 2035 has been revived as a result of the reindustrialisation – which has
improved the innovation climate in general. Industry 4.0 is advanced, but is slowed by the development of island solutions and challenges due to new standards. Nevertheless, there is a sense of optimism and excitement. Customers are included in the value creation processes of companies through open innovation.
The energy mix has become highly diversified by the year 2035. The sector is defined by many new niche technologies, with new ones being added constantly and quickly. The portion of fossil fuels in the global energy mix has decreased significantly, while the prominence of renewable energies has increased dramatically. The “energy industry map” has been redrawn – it has fragmented into innumerable niches.
The energy infrastructure in 2035 is facing enormous challenges. Many individual and decentralised solutions for energy generation, distribution and storage are managed intelligently in the smart grid. The interoperability of this “patchwork” has become a mammoth task that can only be handled with the aid of major IT companies.
Companies complain less about high energy costs and more about the lack of smart grid stability and security.
The business models in almost every industry have been turned upside-down in the past two decades. The pervasive
integration of telecommunications, IT and media with the energy sector as well as unforeseen but positive technological advances, has radically transformed the energy industry.
The report, published by KPMG Global Energy Institute Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMA) can be downloaded here: 2035+; scenarios for Tomorrow’s Energy Sector
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